(Image credit: Boston Red Sox Twitter)
Last night MLB released the revamped 2020 schedule fit for the now 60 game season. No longer it is a 162 game marathon, but rather a full on sprint. For the Red Sox, after a disappointing 2019 season followed by some key losses to the roster in the offseason, with a challenging 60 game schedule ahead of them, they have a lot to prove in a short time if they want any chance at redemption after last year.
Upon first glance at the schedule, it looks to be a rather rocky sprint for the Red Sox. From the AL East, they’re scheduled to play their usual opponents: Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees. “Opening Day” for the Sox is set for Friday, July 24th at 7:30 PM at Fenway against the Orioles, the first Opening Day ever at Fenway with not a fan in the building. While I’m trying to set my expectations low for the Sox this year, especially coming into the most bizarre season these players have seen, I will admit I am banking on the Sox taking full advantage of every game against Baltimore for an easy win. Rarely ever am I someone who anticipates an “easy win,” because as we all know anything can happen in baseball, however looking at the rest of Boston’s schedule, the Sox really have no choice but to take as many wins against the Orioles as they can.
Division Play
Tampa Bay Rays: I say this before even delving into all the interleague play ahead as well because quite frankly, the AL East is becoming a more and more difficult division to play in. No longer is it just the Red Sox and Yankees’ division. While they might get overlooked more often than they should, the Rays have gone from 68 wins in 2016 to 96 last season, almost knocking the Houston Astros out of the playoffs in the 2019 ALDS. Thanks to one of the best farm systems in baseball (much credited to now Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom), the Rays have created a roster that yes, might not have any big names, but provides them with tremendous depth, and will for years to come. Not only that, they sneaky have one of the best rotations in baseball with Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow as their top three starters. As if that’s not enough, the Rays’ bullpen in 2019 led the league in ERA. So yeah, the Rays are scary. Of the 10 times the Sox will play the Rays this season, 6 of those times come away at the Trop, which if you know anything about the Trop, is not exactly ideal. However if it’s any consolation, last season the Sox played Tampa 19 times going 7-12, but 6 of those 7 wins came at the Trop! So that’s something I guess?!
New York Yankees: Of course it’s important to remember while the imbalance in the home and away games in the 60 game schedule for the Sox might seem unfair, with no fans in the park one of the biggest benefits of home field advantage is gone. I had to remind myself of this when seeing the Sox are scheduled to play against their rivals the New York Yankees 7 times in the Bronx of the 10 times they’ll face one another all season. The fact of the matter is you either see the home and away split 7/3 or 6/4 and it just so happened the Sox ended up with the short end of the stick when it comes to the Yankees. Call it fixed, rigged, whatever, at the end of the day, it does not matter as much as it seems. In a 60 game season, every game means so much more. The Sox have 10 chances to take a win over the Yankees, who second to the Dodgers, are the World Series’ favorite. It’s no secret the crowd at Yankee Stadium can make or break an opposing player, especially when it comes to pitching. Now with no fans in the park, that’s no longer a concern. Focus less on the home and away imbalance and more on hoping to GOD the Red Sox see as little of Gerrit Cole as possible. Or even better, think about that time Rafael Devers took Aroldis Chapman’s 102.8 mph fastball deep at Yankee Stadium for the fastest recorded pitch to ever hit for a home run back in August 2017 helping the Sox come back in the 9th for an extra inning 3-2 win, or when Nathan Eovaldi held the Yankees to just 1 run at Yankee Stadium in Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS, beating New York on their own field 16-1, the Yankees’ worst playoff loss in franchise history. Maybe, just maybe, 7 games in the Bronx is not as painful as it seems?! (That’s a hard maybe, by the way).
Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays: The Sox will see their other division opponents the Toronto Blue Jays 7 times at home and 3 times away, and the Orioles 6 times at home and 4 times away. The Orioles as I previously said are the one team besides the Marlins in Boston’s schedule I hope to be easy wins. They’re projected to win just 20 games this season. They made little moves this offseason to improve after a 54-108 season in 2019 and to make matters worse, they’re without their best bat in Trey Mancini who underwent colon cancer surgery in March and will miss the 2020 season. The Blue Jays are an interesting team to watch because while they might not be the guaranteed playoff contenders the Rays and Yankees are, they’re still solid competition for the Sox. With two young stars serving as the foundation of their offense in Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr., as well as the addition of former Dodgers’ pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, who finished second to Jacob deGrom in Cy Young voting for the National League last season, the Blue Jays continue to improve. They’re only going to get better and while the Sox held a 57.9% winning percentage against the Jays last season over the course of 19 games, in a 60 game season with less games to be played, there’s more emphasis on how grueling and demanding a team’s schedule looks over a stretch of time than ever before. By this I mean, for Toronto, they have the third toughest schedule through August 6th in terms of the strength of the teams they’re scheduled to play and how often they’re scheduled to play them. While the competition between Boston and Toronto on paper seems pretty even, now more than ever you have to consider a team’s workload prior to a game. It’s going to be a tough adjustment for everyone, but the key lies in what team is able to make those adjustments and use it to their advantage.
Interleague Play
As far as interleague play goes, the Sox have their work cut out for them. They’ll play the Mets and Phillies 4 times, the Braves 6 times, the World Series champs the Washington Nationals 3 times, and the Marlins 3 times. So two playoff teams in the Braves and Nats, two contenders in the Mets and Phillies, and the Marlins (sorry Marlins).
New York Mets: While I’m particularly excited to see the Sox play the Mets in hopes we get to see former Sox pitcher Rick Porcello at least once, something tells me by the luck of the draw we’re going to end up seeing Jacob deGrom at least once in the 2 games at home and 2 games away against the Mets which is a terrifying thought, to say the least.
Washington Nationals: Add Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to the list of pitchers who absolutely terrify me. While it’s nice we’ll only see the World Series champs 3 times and at home, aside from the loss of Anthony Rendon, that’s still a scary team to face, especially with those two in their rotation. I will admit I am excited to see Juan Soto play at Fenway, though I’ll probably regret saying that come the end of August when he inevitably takes one of our guys yard and launches it over the Monster.
Atlanta Braves: The NL East is easily one of the best divisions in baseball and even with the reigning World Series champs in it, the Atlanta Braves still scare me the most so naturally, the Sox are scheduled to play them 6 times. Pitching wise the Braves lost Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran in the offseason. They signed veteran Cole Hamels to a one-year deal worth $18 million. Hamels is on a mission to prove himself this year. At age 36, his last standout season came in 2016 with the Rangers. In 32 games he held a 3.32 ERA striking out 200 batters. Hamels also attended the All-Star game that year. Unfortunately since then things have not been the same for the vet due to injury. Last year he was on track for a big year for Chicago, with a 2.98 ERA through July 4th but then hurt his shoulder and missed the remainder of the month. He returned in August, but things were not the same for him for the remainder of the season. Hamels missed all of spring training (the first time around, that is) with the Braves because of his shoulder but now after months off due to COVID-19, he’s completely healthy and ready to return. While he might not be ready to go a full 5 innings yet, to be fair I don’t think any pitcher is ready to go just yet. Besides Hamels, at just 22 years old, the Braves have a young stud on the mound in Mike Soroka. Last season Soroka came in second place in Rookie of the Year voting to Pete Alonso, 6th in the Cy Young race, and attended his first All-Star game. In 29 games started, Soroka pitched 174.2 innings with a 20.3 K%, 5.9 BB%, 2.68 ERA and 3.45 FIP. The Braves also have Max Fried who emerged as a starter for them last season, and Mike Foltynewicz who is coming off a disappointing 2019 season and surely looking to redeem himself. 27 year old Sean Newcomb could also emerge as the 5th guy in the rotation for the Braves.
A solid rotation followed by a solid bullpen with guys like Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and Will Smith is only as good as the team’s offense, and man, Atlanta’s offense is good. Ronald Acuña Jr. is going to be an absolute problem no doubt. In the wake of the loss of Josh Donaldson, the Braves signed outfielder Marcell Ozuna and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. In addition to Acuña, they have a solid offensive core in Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman, though Freeman is currently sick with COVID-19 and when he will return is questionable.
Still, after an ugly end to their season in the NLDS Game 5 against the St. Louis Cardinals last October, a game that was over essentially in the first inning, the Braves have got to be feeling more motivated than ever. Even with some big losses to the roster, they’re a good team and ranked 5th to win it all this year. The Red Sox surely have their work cut out for them, especially looking at where their games against Atlanta fall on the schedule. They’re first set to meet the Braves at home August 31st, September 1st, and 2nd, immediately following their 3 game series at home against the Nationals. Yikes. The Sox will then travel to Atlanta at the end of September from the 25th to the 27th for their last 3 games of the regular season. While the Sox play the Orioles the 3 days before heading to Atlanta, the Braves will play the Marlins at home the 4 games prior to the final series of the regular season. Again, this brings us back to the importance of the strength of the schedule for a team over a stretch of time. Both teams are scheduled to play two easier teams before facing one another in the final games of the season, a time that as we all know can make or break a team, especially for a club like the Red Sox who are just considered to be contenders for the playoffs rather than a playoff lock like the Braves. If one thing is for sure, it’s that the Red Sox will need to bring their A-game for both series against Atlanta.
A lot of questions to be answered in this weird season
It may not look like the shortened season is doing Boston any favors, and while yes the schedule surely doesn’t with a particularly difficult August, with so many games in such a short amount of time, there’s a lot more to it than just strength of schedule.
Nathan Eovaldi: It was announced today Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez tested positive for COVID-19, obviously offsetting the start of his season. ERod of course was expected to be Boston’s opening day starter, now making Nathan Eovaldi likely our guy. Eovaldi, acquired from Tampa at the trade deadline back in July 2018 of course solidified himself in Boston sports history with one of the most impressive pitching performances of all time in Game 3 of the infamous 18-inning World Series game at Dodger Stadium. He then signed a four-year $68 million contract with Boston in the offseason, a contract many were critical of due to Eovaldi’s health history plagued by injuries. In 2019, Eovaldi started in just 12 games due to an elbow surgery he underwent last May. He did not return till mid-summer and struggled in his return. Before the season was put on pause Eovaldi looked impressive during spring training, a good sign for the season. For someone who struggles with injury, while of course getting back into a groove will be difficult like it is for any other pitcher, one would think all the time off couldn’t have hurt. On the other hand, while he’s not pitching in as many games, he’s now not only expected to go every 4 or 5 days on less rest than players are used to with far less time off, but now Eovaldi’s slated to be our #1 guy for the time being. For him a 60 game season is either going to work to his advantage, or cause damage.
The starting rotation in general: While it’s not set in stone ERod won’t be ready to go by July 24th, it’s likely at the very least if the Red Sox decide to have any exhibition games, he will not be ready for those. This bodes the question, without ERod, what does our starting rotation look like? As of right now the only locks are Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Ryan Weber. While I’m known to be an optimist, I won’t lie if I were to draft up a MLB team in hopes of a playoff run, my rotation would look...different. Of course in “unprecedented times,” these things happen. We already suffered a big loss when it was announced Sale underwent Tommy-John and would be out for all of the 2020 season and a portion of the 2021 season. Now with ERod out for the time being, by far the team’s best starter last year, we have to rely on Eovaldi to stay healthy, Martin Perez, who to be fair also looked pretty good in spring training, but overall has struggled the last couple seasons. Perez signed a one-year deal with the Sox over the offseason with an option for 2021. Last season with the Twins he posted a 5.12 ERA, which is not exactly ideal for your second or third starter. Perez is not a strikeout guy but he does a good job at generating weak contact, which if he can channel that kind of effectiveness on the mound in creating weak contact, he’s a solid addition in terms of depth to the rotation. Of course if he does end up being our second starter even for just a brief period of time, him merely being a “good addition for depth” is not preferable for the Red Sox. Last season with the Twins Perez introduced his new cutter which seemed to be most effective for him and ranked second in all of the league, holding batters to a .214 BA. Certainly he has his pros and cons like all pitchers, but it’s looking like he’s going to be playing a much bigger role than expected this season.
Though I don’t think anyone is feeling the pressure quite like Ryan Weber. Over a span of 5 seasons in the MLB, Ryan Weber has started just 11 games with a 5.96 ERA, Now he’s Ron Roneicke golden boy. Throughout the first go at spring training, Roneicke praised Weber multiple times, similar to how Cora used to talk about ERod last spring training, who then went on to have his best season. Does this mean Weber is going to have a season like ERod’s 2019? Probably not. However, while for a lot of people seeing Weber’s name in the rotation probably caused some confusion, I don’t think we’ve seen enough to fully evaluate what he’s capable of yet. What better time to prove yourself as a starter than in a 60 game season? Obviously the rotation cannot just stand at three guys. Maybe if he’s healthy and comfortable enough we’ll see Collin McHugh step up as a starter, or it’s also possible the Sox go the route of having an opener to pitch the first one or two innings with options such as McHugh or Brian Johnson. Overall, the starting rotation is shaky, to say the least.
No more Mookie: When you lose a guy like Mookie Betts one can expect his absence will surely be noticed almost immediately. He’s just not a player you can replace and the Red Sox know that. While yes the loss of Mookie is huge, people forget how good the Red Sox offense still is. Xander and Devers both went on absolute tears last year and for much of the 2019 season, it felt like the only solace in all the disappointment was getting to watch those two play.
JD Martinez is back after deciding to stay with the Sox back in November. Though he might not ever have a season like he did back in 2018, Martinez still held it down at DH for the Sox last year with a .304 BA with 36 home runs and 105 RBIs. He also represented the Sox alongside Mookie in his third All-Star game. Not to mention with the implementation of the universal DH for this season, no longer in interleague play do the Sox have to stick Martinez in the outfield to get him at-bats, and while I love JD, the less time he's in the outfield, the better.
There's a lot of pressure on Andrew Benintendi to have a big 2020 after underachieving last year. I believe Benny absolutely will bounce back, just maybe not in the way people are expecting. People keep saying Benny needs a "breakout season" but if he can replicate his 2018 season, I think we'll be in good shape. He's not a guy that's going to hit 30 home runs a season and bat .330. All we need from Benny is for him to be comfortable at the plate and make contact with the ball. Last year he struck out 140 times. He played 10 less games than he did in 2018, when he struck out only 106 times. It's very obvious whatever Benny struggled with last season are all things that can be fixed.
Christian Vazquez became a sneaky offensive weapon for the Sox last year. Vazquez hit a career high 23 home runs with 72 RBIs. His second best in his career came in 2017 when he hit 5 home runs and 32 RBIs. If he can hit like that again this season, he will be another bat for opponents to watch out for in our lineup.
Alex Verdugo, the newly acquired outfielder from Los Angeles the Sox received as apart of the Betts/Price trade is said to be ready to begin the season fully healthy. During the time of the trade he was suffering from a back injury, one that kept him out of spring training games and was supposed to delay his start to the season. After being able to rest during the COVID hiatus, the hope is he'll be able to contribute to the offense right away. He's got an impressive bat and at just 23 he could become a real weapon for the Sox in the upcoming years.
Will there even be a season?: Obviously there's a good chance the league is not able to finish the season, or who knows, even start it in two weeks time. Though the Red Sox said they personally have not had the troubles with the weekly COVID testings other teams have expressed, as Jackie Bradley Jr. told the media recently, there's definitely going to be hiccups along the way in terms of testing. Today it was announced there are now four Sox players who tested positive with ERod, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Bobby Dalbec. Everyday it seems like there's news about another player in the league testing positive. While the MLB did the best they can in limiting travel with the new schedule, it's inevitable it's going to spread. Not only that, as of right now games are still set to be played in hot spots for the virus such as Florida, where the Sox are scheduled to play 8 games between Tampa and Miami.
There are no guarantees in a season like this. If the season does happen, the only thing any of us know for sure is it'll be like nothing any of us have seen before.